Where the listing figure is furthest off
For an old Corolla, the yearly depreciation on a listing is about right. For an old 911 or a Civic Type R, it is thousands too high. Nine models, side by side.
In short
- A listing's yearly depreciation counts a car on a renewed COE as worth $0 when the COE ends. For most older everyday cars that is about right: a Corolla is worth little without its COE.
- Cars that hold their value still sell for a lot then. For them, the listing's figure is far too high: about $20,600 a year for an old 911, $21,300 for a Civic Type R.
- A short COE makes it worse: the whole price is spread over a year or two.
The nine models
Every car on a renewed COE (over 10 years old) on sale on sgcarmart on 16 October 2026, 3,512 in all; these are nine of the models. For each, the middle car: half are above, half below. Each column has its own middle, so the columns don't add up exactly.
| Model | sgcarmart a year | Carkaki a year | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Corolla58 on sale · $30,000 · 2.5 years of COE | $12,000 | $12,000 | about the same |
| Honda Civic (not Type R)88 on sale · $36,800 · 2.5 years of COE | $14,500 | $13,600 | $900 |
| Mercedes-Benz E-Class138 on sale · $59,900 · 4.2 years of COE | $14,500 | $13,200 | $1,300 |
| Porsche Cayenne52 on sale · $80,800 · 4.9 years of COE | $17,700 | $14,800 | $2,900 |
| Maserati GranTurismo41 on sale · $65,800 · 3.9 years of COE | $17,800 | $13,200 | $4,600 |
| Porsche Boxster37 on sale · $126,800 · 5 years of COE | $24,600 | $18,800 | $5,800 |
| Honda Civic Type R41 on sale · $57,800 · 1.4 years of COE | $35,800 | $14,500 | $21,300 |
| Porsche 91187 on sale · $239,800 · 4.6 years of COE | $52,100 | $31,500 | $20,600 |
| Ferrari (all models)73 on sale · $390,000 · 6.5 years of COE | $67,300 | $33,400 | $33,900 |
Carkaki's middle estimate, keeping the car till its COE ends, without road tax. sgcarmart's figure as shown on each listing.
Why the two numbers differ
Depreciation a year is the price, minus what you get back at the end, divided by the years. sgcarmart counts only the PARF rebate as what you get back. A car on a renewed COE gets none, so it counts $0.
But the car itself still sells when its COE ends: the next owner pays for a new COE on top. Carkaki estimates what the car is worth then from the asking prices of similar older cars on sale today, minus the COE value left on each, and never more than the car is priced at today without its COE. How it works, step by step: What is a car worth when its COE runs out?
For an old Corolla or Civic, that value is small, and the two numbers nearly agree. For a 911, a Ferrari or a Type R, it is large, and the listing's figure is much too high.
Why some cars come out at the same yearly figure
Several models land on $13,200 a year: the E-Class and the GranTurismo in the middle, and many single cars. That is what the COE itself loses a year (about a tenth of today's renewal price). When we expect a car to be worth what it is today when the COE ends, the only thing you lose is the COE.
What this doesn't say
- These are asking prices, not what the cars sold for.
- Middle values hide a wide spread: two cars of the same model can differ by tens of thousands.
- Depreciation is not the whole cost: road tax on an old car is higher (up to 50% more after 10 years), and so are insurance and repairs for some.
See what any used car really costs you a year.
Search a car on Carkaki刊登上的折旧数字，哪些车偏差最大
对老 Corolla 来说，刊登上的每年折旧差不多准；对老 911 或 Civic Type R，每年却多算了上万块。九款车型，并排比较。
简单来说
- 刊登上的每年折旧，把已续拥车证的车算成拥车证到期时值 $0。对大多数较旧的普通车来说，这差不多准：一辆 Corolla 没了拥车证，就值不了多少钱。
- 保值的车，到时还能卖不少钱。对这些车，刊登上的数字高太多了：老 911 每年约高 $20,600，Civic Type R 约高 $21,300。
- 拥车证剩余越短，偏差越大：整个车价只摊在一两年里。
九款车型
2026年10月16日在 sgcarmart 在售、已续拥车证（车龄超过 10 年）的车，共 3,512 辆；这里是其中九款车型。每款车型取中间那辆：一半的车比它高，一半比它低。每一栏的中位数是分开取的，所以各栏加减起来不会刚好对上。
| 车型 | sgcarmart 每年 | Carkaki 每年 | 差额 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Corolla58 辆在售 · $30,000 · 拥车证剩余 2.5 年 | $12,000 | $12,000 | 差不多一样 |
| Honda Civic（不含 Type R）88 辆在售 · $36,800 · 拥车证剩余 2.5 年 | $14,500 | $13,600 | $900 |
| Mercedes-Benz E-Class138 辆在售 · $59,900 · 拥车证剩余 4.2 年 | $14,500 | $13,200 | $1,300 |
| Porsche Cayenne52 辆在售 · $80,800 · 拥车证剩余 4.9 年 | $17,700 | $14,800 | $2,900 |
| Maserati GranTurismo41 辆在售 · $65,800 · 拥车证剩余 3.9 年 | $17,800 | $13,200 | $4,600 |
| Porsche Boxster37 辆在售 · $126,800 · 拥车证剩余 5 年 | $24,600 | $18,800 | $5,800 |
| Honda Civic Type R41 辆在售 · $57,800 · 拥车证剩余 1.4 年 | $35,800 | $14,500 | $21,300 |
| Porsche 91187 辆在售 · $239,800 · 拥车证剩余 4.6 年 | $52,100 | $31,500 | $20,600 |
| Ferrari（所有车型）73 辆在售 · $390,000 · 拥车证剩余 6.5 年 | $67,300 | $33,400 | $33,900 |
Carkaki 取中间估算，假设车开到拥车证到期，不计路税。sgcarmart 的数字，就是每个刊登上显示的那个。
两个数字为什么不同
每年折旧，就是车价减去最后能拿回的钱，再除以年数。sgcarmart 只把 PARF 回扣算作拿回的钱。已续拥车证的车拿不到 PARF 回扣，所以算作 $0。
但拥车证到期时，车本身还是卖得出去：下一任车主另外付钱买新的拥车证。Carkaki 估算车到时值多少，参考的是今天在售、相似的较旧车的叫价，减去每辆车剩余的拥车证价值；估值也绝不会高于这辆车今天扣掉拥车证后的价格。具体怎么算，一步步看：拥车证到期时，旧车还值多少钱？
老 Corolla 或 Civic 到时值不了多少，两个数字几乎一样。911、Ferrari 或 Type R 到时还很值钱，刊登上的数字就高太多了。
为什么有些车算出来的每年折旧一样
好几款车型都落在每年 $13,200：E-Class 和 GranTurismo 的中位数就是这个数，很多单辆车也是。这正是拥车证本身每年损失的价值（约为今天续拥车证价格的十分之一）。如果我们预计一辆车到拥车证到期时，还和今天一样值钱，那你损失的就只有拥车证。
这些数字没告诉你的
- 这些都是叫价，不是车子真正的成交价。
- 中位数背后差距很大：同一款车型的两辆车，可以相差好几万块。
- 折旧不是全部开销：老车的路税更高（车龄超过 10 年后最多贵 50%），有些车的保险和维修费也更高。
看看任何一辆二手车，每年真正要花你多少。
在 Carkaki 搜一辆车